Fresh off Tua Tagovailoa being a healthy scratch for the first time in his NFL career, oddsmakers are already looking ahead to where the Miami Dolphins’ benched quarterback might suit up in 2026.
The perennially quarterback-starved Cleveland Browns and New York Jets have been installed with the shortest odds to take a chance on Tagovailoa next season, but the team with the third-shortest odds provide the most intriguing story line.
Kansas City will start its third different quarterback of the season against Denver on Christmas Day with Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew shelved because of knee injuries. Mahomes already underwent surgery with an eye on playing Week 1 next season, but the Chiefs will most certainly add veteran depth to replace Minshew and provide a capable backup to at least begin the season if needed.
TUA TAGOVAILOA NEXT TEAM ODDS*
Cleveland Browns (+200)
New York Jets (+300)
Kansas City Chiefs (+400)
Las Vegas Raiders (+500)
Indianapolis Colts (+600)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+700)
Arizona Cardinals (+800)
Minnesota Vikings (+1000)
New Orleans Saints (+1200)
Atlanta Falcons (+1600)
New York Giants (+2000)
*SportsBetting.ag odds provided for entertainment purposes only.
The Dolphins are widely expected to part ways with Tagovailoa this offseason. How that transpires — and how much control Tagovailoa has over his next NFL destination — remains to be seen.
The Dolphins signed Tagovailoa, 27, to a four-year, $212 million extension in July 2024 after he led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 with 4,624. But amid a disappointing 2025 season in which Tagovailoa had thrown an NFL-high 15 interceptions, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel chose last week to go with rookie Quinn Ewers for the final three games of the season — with Zach Wilson serving as his backup and Tagovailoa dropped to the emergency third spot.
It has been a stunning and swift fall from grace for the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. And making him the third quarterback is a clear indication that the Dolphins don’t want to risk Tagovailoa sustaining a serious injury.
Tagovailoa is still owed a fully guaranteed $55 million next season. If he is released, Miami would be on the hook for the total guaranteed amount remaining on his contract, which would be an NFL-record $99.2 million cap hit in 2026. The current record is the $85 million the Denver Broncos absorbed by releasing Russell Wilson before the 2024 offseason.
If the Dolphins release Tagovailoa, they would absorb a $67.4 million dead cap hit in 2026 and another $31.8 million in 2027. Trading him also brings a massive financial burden in the form of a $45.2 million dead cap hit, although that could be split into $13.4 million next season and $31.8 million in 2027 if he’s dealt after June 1.
While trading Tagovailoa is by far the most “cost efficient” approach, it’s still a massive cost for a player who would no longer be on the roster. The other option would be to keep him on the roster as a backup next season, with Tagovailoa’s contract containing far less guaranteed money after 2026.
